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commercial risk outlook report - august 2016

SV Partners has released the findings within the Commercial Risk Outlook Report for August 2016, providing an analysis of the current state of Australian businesses from an insolvency and overall economic perspective.

This report analyses industries and regions within Australia where operating businesses are predicted to face financial hard times within the next 12 months. This Report also develops a multidimensional view of the drivers behind commercial risk for business owners, while providing insights from a professional insolvency perspective.

The Commercial Risk data attempts to predict business financial failure based on the likelihood of adverse events including external administrations, petitions to wind up, Mercantile enquiries, defaults, bankruptcies, court writs, default judgements and trading payment history within the next 12 months. This commercial risk data is fundamentally based on bureau information over a 5 year period.

The Commercial Risk statistics in this Report are from the latest bureau findings from June 2016, predicting default activity for the next 12 months. 

Key Findings

Nationally, the top 5 industries at risk of default within the next 12 months are (in order of number of businesses):

  1. Construction
  2. Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
  3. Retail Trade
  4. Accommodation & Food Services
  5. Transport, Postal & Warehousing

The top five areas where businesses are most at risk of default within the next 12 months, according to number of businesses, are: 

  1. VIC: Melbourne Inner (816), 0.8% of businesses in the region
  2. NSW: Sydney Inner South West (722), 1.9% of businesses in the region
  3. NSW: Sydney City and Inner South (684), 1.0% of businesses in the region
  4. QLD: Gold Coast (652), 1.2% of businesses in the region
  5. NSW: Parramatta (625), 1.9% of businesses in the region
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